By Li-Gang Liu Sherman Robinson Zhi Wang
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Additional resources for Global Economic Effects of the Asian Currency Devaluations (Policy Analyses in International Economics)
If accumulated inflation in wholesale prices is taken into account, the figures rise to $67 billion and $73 billion, respectively. The biggest increases in the deficit are generated by trade with Japan and South Korea. These countries are large exporters, have large bilateral trade flows with the United States, and experience large real exchange rate depreciations. Trade with China, which does not experience 1. These are our central estimates: Without Chinese devaluation, the US deficit increases by $76 billion in the high-shock scenario and by less than $15 billion in the low-shock scenario.
15 percent), but rises in the long run, reflecting a reallocation of world production. 24 24. A similar argument could be applied to the case of Western Europe, and, in the lowshock scenario, to the case of Japan reported in appendix C. com China This leaves China—the shoe that has not dropped. Conventional wisdom has it that China, thanks to its capital controls, has remained largely immune to the contagion that swept Asia. Makin (1997), for example, has argued that not only have the capital controls prevented the kind of turmoil in the foreign exchange markets experienced elsewhere in Asia, but the state’s strong influence over the economy through its control of decision making by state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and the banking system essentially allows it to keep output high despite market pressure for a contraction.
Korea Taiwan Singapore Japan Cumulative devaluations mediates as a result of a decline in imports from the fall in investment and domestic absorption. 4. In the medium-shock scenario, the external balance of the Philippines increases by approximately $6 billion, less than $2 billion in the low-shock scenario, and nearly $9 billion in the final high-shock scenario as shown in appendix C. Most of the trade balance increase occurs in trade with Western Europe and the United States. The largest export increases are in services, textiles and apparel, and light manufactures.
Global Economic Effects of the Asian Currency Devaluations (Policy Analyses in International Economics) by Li-Gang Liu Sherman Robinson Zhi Wang